Optimal health is the desired output of a health care system. Thus, how a proposed policy affects individual and population health is a crucial consideration in evaluating the policy.

Health policy changes may not affect health as much as expected because medical care is only one factor determining the health of an individual or population. Medical advances have improved care and outcomes for many diseases, but the effects of health care on health may be less than the effects of other factors (Evans, Barer, and Marmor, 1994).

Factors that strongly affect health include the following:

  • Behavioral choices: Diet, exercise, smoking, and sexual practices, among other behaviors, influence health.
  • Genetics: Chronic illnesses, such as diabetes and cardiovascular disease, have a genetic component.
  • Social circumstances: Education, employment, income, race/ethnicity, and poverty are several of the social factors that influence health.
  • Medical care: Both access to and quality of care are factors. Medical care is generally assumed to improve health; however, medical errors can actually be a significant source of mortality and morbidity.
  • Environmental conditions: Physical surroundings, including pollutants, food contamination, and microbial agents, all affect health.

One way to assess the importance of these factors is to quantify how each affects the number of premature deaths in the United States. Figure 1 illustrates this link.

Figure 1. Causes of Premature Death in the United States, 2002

Figure 1: Causes of Premature Death in the United States 2002 SOURCE: Created with data from McGinnis JM, Williams-Russo P, Knickman JR, 2002. Click to Zoom

The interaction among these categories is clearly significant. For example, poor diet combined with a genetic predisposition for heart disease may have a greater effect on health than just the sum of these two risk factors. Thus, even if a proposed policy would improve the quality of or access to health care, it may have a limited ability to extend life or reduce morbidity.

Measures of population health are available in a number of public surveys, for example, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the Health and Retirement Study, and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey. We describe some common measures below.

Overall Life Expectancy. In 2005, overall life expectancy for individuals living in the United States was 77.8 years. Life expectancy for women (80.4 years) was higher than that for men (75.2 years) (See the table).

Life Expectancy at Birth in the United States
Overall life expectancy (all races/both sexes) 77.8
Overall life expectancy, women
    All races 80.4 years
    Black/African–American 76.5 years
    Caucasian 80.8 years
Overall life expectancy, men
All races 75.2 years
    Black/African–American 69.5 years
    Caucasian 75.7 years

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2007.

Infant Mortality. The overall infant mortality rate in 2004 was 6.8 infant deaths per 1,000 births. However, there were large disparities among different ethnic groups: For example, the infant mortality rate for black mothers was 13.6 per 1,000 births (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2007).

Leading Causes of Death. The leading causes of death in the U.S. population are, in order of prevalence,

  • heart disease
  • cancer
  • stroke
  • chronic lower respiratory disease
  • unintentional injuries.

Figure 2 shows the trends in causes of death over the past 55 years. Deaths from cancer and chronic lower respiratory diseases have increased while other causes have generally trended downward (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2007).

Figure 2. Trends in the Leading Causes of Death for All Ages, the United States, 1950–2005

Figure 2. Trends in the Leading Causes of Death for All Ages, the United States, 1950–2005

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008.

NOTES: Estimates are age adjusted. Causes of death shown are the five leading causes of death for all ages in 2005. Starting with 1999 data, causes of death were coded according to International Classification of Diseases 10, from the World Health Organization. For data points graphed and additional notes, see U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008, data table for figure 16, p. 126. Click to Zoom

Disease Prevalence. The following health problems or conditions are common in the U.S. population age 20–75:

  • Overweight and obesity: 66 percent
  • Obesity, 32.1 percent
  • Overweight including obese is defined as a body mass index (BMI) greater than or equal to 25; overweight but not obese, as a BMI greater than or equal to 25 but less than 30; and obese, as a BMI greater than or equal to 30.
  • Hypertension:
    • 23 percent of men and 23.2 percent of women age 45–54 years
    • 45 percent of men and 58.5 percent of women age 75 years and over
  • Diabetes: 10.2 percent (both diagnosed and undiagnosed).

Disability/Health-Related Quality of Life. Public surveys also ask respondents to rate the quality of their life. Figure 3 illustrates how the adult population rated its health in 2001.

Figure 3. Self–Reported Health of Adult Population, the United States, 1993–2001

Figure 3. Self–Reported Health of Adult Population, the United States, 1993–2001

SOURCE: Data are derived from Zahran et al., 2005. Click to Zoom

The ratings varied by age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic characteristics.

Age: Thirty–three percent of the population over the age of 75 reported fair or poor health, compared with only 7.5 percent of adults 18–24 years who described their health in that way (Zahran et al., 2005).

Race/ethnicity: More blacks, Native Americans, and Hispanics reported fair to poor health than did Caucasians and Asians (see Figure 4).

Figure 4. Percentage of Specific Groups That Rated Their Health as Fair or Poor in the United States

Figure 4. Percentage of Specific Groups That Rated Their Health as Fair or Poor in the United States

SOURCE: Data are derived from Zahran et al., 2005. Click to Zoom

Socioeconomic: Nearly half of individuals with yearly household incomes of $75,000 or more reported excellent health compared with about one–quarter of those with incomes less than $20,000 per year (Adams, Dey, and Vickerie, 2007).

In adults, activity limitations are measured with respect to working or doing everyday chores. In children, they are measured with respect to play or other age-appropriate activities, memory, and special needs regarding education:

  • Overall 34.1 million people (12 percent) of the population are limited in their usual activities because of one or more chronic health conditions.
  • Prevalence of limitation increases with age:
    • 6 percent of children under 12 years
    • 15 percent of adults aged 45–64
    • 44 percent of adults over age 75 (Adams, Dey, and Vickerie, 2007).

Activity limitations can be categorized by their disease specific causes, which also vary by age.

Children. Among younger children, speech problems, mental retardation, and asthma are the leading causes of activity limitation; other types of learning problems and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) become more prominent as children get older. This pattern can be seen in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Selected Chronic Health Conditions Causing Activity Limitations Among Children in the United States, 2005-2006

Figure 5. Selected Chronic Health Conditions Causing Activity Limitations Among Children in the United States, 2005-2006 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008. NOTES: Data are for noninstitutionalized children. Children with more than one chronic health condition that caused activity limitation were counted in each category. For data points graphed, standard errors, and additional notes, see U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008, data table for figure 11, p. 122. * Estimates are considered unreliable. Data preceded by an asterisk have a relative standard error (RSE) of 20-30 percent. Data not shown have an RSE of greater than 30 percent. Click to Zoom

Adults age 18–64: Arthritis and heart disease become more common as individuals age. Mental illness remains a relatively stable cause of limitations in activity for all ages. (See Figure 6.)

Figure 6. Selected Chronic Conditions Causing Activity Limitations Among Working Age Adults, the United States, 2005–2006

Figure 6. Selected Chronic Conditions Causing Activity Limitations Among Working Age Adults, the United States, 2005–2006

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008. NOTES: Data are for the civilian noninstitutionalized population. Adults with more than one chronic health condition causing activity limitation were counted in each category. For data points graphed, standard errors, and additional notes, see U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008, data table for figure 12, p. 122. Click to Zoom

Adults over 65: An estimated 25 percent of adults age 65–74 and 60 percent of adults 75 and older have activity limitations. Arthritis and heart disease continue to be the leading causes, but dementia and vision problems become increasingly prevalent with age, as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7. Selected Chronic Health Conditions Causing Activity Limitations Among Older Adults by Age, the United States, 2005–2006

Figure 7. Selected Chronic Health Conditions Causing Activity Limitations Among Older Adults by Age, the United States, 2005–2006

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008. NOTES: Data are for the civilian noninstitutionalized population. Adults with more than one chronic health condition causing activity limitation were counted in each category. For data points graphed, standard errors, and additional notes, see U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008, data table for figure 13, p. 123. Click to Zoom

Many factors will affect the future health of the U.S. population. Prominent among these factors are aging of the population, trends in poverty, and trends in obesity.

Aging of the Population. From 1950 to 2005, the population of the United States grew from 151 million to 296 million. The average annual growth rate during this period was 1.2 percent; however, older groups grew faster. The population over 65 grew at a rate of 2.0 percent, and the number of individuals over 75 years grew at 2.8 percent. In 2005, those over age 65 constituted 12 percent of the population; this number is expected to increase to 19 percent by 2030 (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008).

Aging of the population is usually associated with increased prevalence of certain diseases; however, there is some evidence that the elderly in the United States are actually becoming healthier. Lakdawalla, Bhattacharya, and Goldman (2004) found that rates of disability regarding routine daily activities have been falling for people over the age of 50. In contrast, the authors found the rates of disability to be increasing for the younger population.

Goldman et al. modeled the health of the future elderly to determine disability and limitations in this population (Goldman et al., 2005). Figure 8 shows three possible trends that the analysts considered: In scenario A, they take into account the health and disability of younger populations and project the effects of these characteristics into the future; scenario B assumes that future Medicare beneficiaries resemble today's; scenario C assumes that rates of disability will continue to decline among the elderly. The estimated prevalence of disability among the elderly varies substantially depending on the assumptions made about the health of specific age groups.

Figure 8. Disability Among the Elderly Under Three Scenarios, Prevalence of Any Activities of Daily Living Limitation, 2000–2030

Figure 8: Disability Among the Elderly Under Three Scenarios, Prevalence of Any Activities of Daily Living Limitation, 2000–2300 SOURCES: Goldman et al., 2005. Simulations are based on data from the 1992–1999 Medicare Current Beneficiary Surveys and the 1990–1996 National Health Interview Surveys. Click to Zoom

Poverty. Poverty contributes directly to poor health through a variety of environmental and behavioral influences.

Age: Children are more likely than adults to live at or below the federal poverty threshold. Figure 9 illustrates this trend.

Figure 9. Poverty by age: United States, 1966–2006

Figure 9. Poverty by age: United States, 1966–2006 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008. NOTES: Data are for the civilian noninstitutionalized population. Adults with more than one chronic health condition causing activity limitation were counted in each category. For data points graphed and additional notes, see U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008, data table for figure 4, p. 114. Click to Zoom

Race/ethnicity: At all ages, blacks and Hispanics are more likely to live in poverty than non–Hispanic whites and Asians (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008).

Obesity. Obesity is a risk factor for increased morbidity and mortality from heart disease, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, and high blood pressure. Since the 1980s, rates of obesity in the U.S. population have increased significantly, as shown in Figure 10.

Figure 10. Overweight and Obesity by Age, in the United States, 1960–2006

Figure 10: Overweight and Obesity by Age, United States, 19607ndash;2006 SOURCE: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2008, p. 320. Click to Zoom

Obesity increases the prevalence of chronic disease and can lead to significant disability, decreasing health related quality of life (Lakdawalla, Bhattacharya, and Goldman, 2004). Rates of obesity related disability increase as people get older, as illustrated in Figure 11.

Figure 11. Rate of Routine Needs Disability per 10,000 U.S. Population, by Age Group and Obesity Status, 1990

Figure 11: Rate of Routine–Needs Disability per 10,000 Population, by Age Group and Obesity Status, 1990 SOURCE: Lakdawalla, Bhattacharya, and Goldman, 2004, p. 173. Click to Zoom

One study predicts that if the obesity trends continue without any other changes in behavior or medical technology, the proportion of people reporting fair or poor health would increase by about 12 percent among men and 14 percent among women by the year 2020 (Sturm, Ringel, and Andreyeva, 2004).

Comparisons with other Western developed countries provide perspective on U.S. health. In general, members of the U.S. population have shorter life expectancy (Figure 12), shorter healthy life expectancy (Figure 13) and higher infant mortality (Figure 14) than the population in other major countries.

Figure 12. Life Expectancy at Birth, 2006

Figure 12. Life Expectancy at Birth, 2006 SOURCE: World Health Organization, 2006 Click to Zoom

Figure 13. Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth

Figure 13: Healthy Life Expectancy at Birth SOURCE: World Health Organization, 2006 Click to Zoom

Figure 14. Infant Mortality

Figure 14: Infant Mortality SOURCE: World Health Organization, 2006 Click to Zoom

Adams PF, Dey AN, Vickerie JL, Summary Health Statistics for the U.S. Population: National Health Interview Survey, 2005, Hyattsville, Md.: National Center for Health Statistics, Vital and Health Statistics, Series 10, Number 223, DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 2007–1561, January 2007.

Evans RG, Barer ML, Marmor TR, eds., Why Are Some People Healthy and Others Not? The Determinants of Health of Populations, New York, N.Y.: Walter de Gruyter, Inc., 1994.

Goldman DP, Shang B, Bhattacharya J, Garber AM, Hurd M, Joyce GF, Lakdawalla DN, Panis C, Shekelle PG, "Consequences of Health Trends and Medical Innovation for the Future Elderly," Health Affairs, Web Exclusives, Vol. W5, September 26, 2005, pp. W5R5–W5R17.

Lakdawalla DN, Bhattacharya J, Goldman DP, "Are the Young Becoming More Disabled?" Health Affairs, Vol. 23, No. 1, January/February 2004, pp. 168–176.

McGinnis JM, Williams-Russo P, Knickman JR, "The Case for More Active Policy Attention to Health Promotion," Health Affairs, Vol. 21, No. 2, March/April 2002, pp. 78–93.

Sturm R, Ringel J, Andreyeva T, "Increasing Obesity Rates and Disability Trends," Health Affairs, Vol. 23, 2004, pp. 199–205.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health, United States, 2008, Hyattsville, Md.: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, November 2008. As of July 21, 2009: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus08.pdf

World Health Organization, WHO Statistical Information System, 2006. As of July 21, 2009: http://apps.who.int/whosis/data/Search.jsp?indicators=[Indicator].[MBD].Members

Zahran HS, Kobau R, Moriarty DG, Zack MM, Hold J, Donehoo R, "Health–Related Quality of Life Surveillance–United States, 1993–2002," Atlanta, Ga.: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports, Surveillance Summaries, Vol. 54, No. 2204, October 28, 2005, pp. 1–35. As of July 21, 2009: http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/ss/ss5404.pdf

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